I asked Grok about the weather, and here is the answer:
"Overview of Weather Expectations for North America in 2026Predicting weather for an entire year like 2026 across a vast continent like North America involves blending seasonal climate outlooks (from sources like NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) with longer-term trends influenced by climate change. Exact daily or monthly forecasts aren't possible this far out, but probabilistic patterns emerge from models considering factors like a likely weak La Niña (71% chance in late 2025, dropping to 54% into early 2026), which often brings cooler, wetter winters to the northern U.S. and Canada while warming the south. Overall, 2026 is expected to be warmer than historical averages continent-wide due to ongoing climate change, with more frequent extremes like heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts. Summers could see 27–50 days above 90°F (32°C) in parts of the U.S. by mid-century under current trends, amplified in 2026.I'll break this down by season, focusing on the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, with key regional variations. These draw from NOAA outlooks, IPCC assessments, and expert analyses.Winter (December 2025–February 2026, extending into early 2026)A weak La Niña is the dominant driver, favoring a split pattern: cooler and snowier in the north, drier and warmer in the south. This could mean more Arctic outbreaks but shorter cold snaps overall compared to pre-1980s La Niñas, as climate change raises baseline temperatures.Region
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation/Snow Outlook
Key Risks
Northern U.S. & Canada (e.g., Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes)
Below- to near-average; cooler pockets in the West early on
Wetter than average; above-average snow in Rockies and Northern New England (promising for skiing)
Increased blizzard risk; early snowmelt by March due to warming trends
Central U.S. (Plains, Midwest)
Neutral (equal chances); variable cold shots
Equal chances; potential for wetter north-central areas
Drought persistence in some spots, transitioning to neutral by spring
Southern U.S. & Mexico (Southwest, Southeast, Gulf Coast)
Above-average; warmer flips in East by March
Drier than average; below-average snow in Southwest
Heightened wildfire risk from dry conditions; rapid hurricane intensification possible (more intense rainfall from storms)
Northeast U.S. & Eastern Canada
Near- to above-average in East; cooler north
Wetter in Northeast; variable snow (less consistent early season)
Flooding from heavy snow/rain; early end to ski season in lower elevations
Spring (March–May 2026)Transition from La Niña influences, with equal chances for temperatures and precipitation in many areas due to lower forecast skill. Climate trends suggest earlier snowmelt (already down since 1967) and more intense storms.Northern/Central North America: Milder with above-normal temperatures tilting in; increased flood risk from melting snow.
Southern Regions: Hotter and drier, exacerbating droughts in the Southwest and Mexico.
Extremes: More heavy rain events leading to floods; tornado activity in the Plains could be elevated.
Summer (June–August 2026)Warmer and more humid overall, with uneven precipitation. Climate change projections indicate intensified heat waves and uneven rain distribution—wetter north, drier south—building on 2023's record heat.Region
Temperature Outlook
Precipitation Outlook
Key Risks
Northern U.S. & Canada
Above-average; more winter/spring rain carries over
Wetter than average (more storms)
Heat-related health risks; vector-borne diseases like Lyme spreading northward
Southwest U.S. & Northern Mexico
Much warmer; prolonged heat waves
Drier; drought intensification
Wildfires, water shortages; crop yield drops (e.g., >10% in some counties)
Southeast U.S. & Southern Mexico
Hot and humid; record highs possible
Variable; heavy downpours amid dry spells
Hurricane season peaks with stronger storms (higher rainfall, surges); coastal flooding
Fall (September–November 2026)Shifting toward neutral ENSO, but with lingering warmth. Expect contrasts: cooler West early, then broader warming.Pacific Northwest & Rockies: Cooler start, transitioning variable.
East & South: Warmer, with potential for active hurricane season into October.
Extremes: Increased typhoon/monsoon threats in Mexico; early frosts less likely due to warming.
Broader Climate Change Influences in 2026Human-induced warming (already +1.1°C globally since pre-industrial times) will overlay these patterns, making extremes more likely:Heat Waves & Droughts: More intense in the Southwest and Plains; northern snow cover down ~10% since 2000.
Heavy Precipitation & Floods: Wetter winters/north, but flash floods from intense storms; sea levels rising ~3–4 mm/year threaten coasts.
Storms: Hurricanes/tornadoes intensify (e.g., 10–20% more rain per event); wildfires up due to drier fuels.
Ecosystem & Societal Impacts: Food production strained (e.g., potato yields in Midwest); health risks from heat/disease; $1 trillion in U.S. coastal property at flood risk by century's end.
These outlooks update monthly—check NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for refinements. Reducing emissions could limit warming to <2°C, curbing the worst extremes."