Grok's Answer About the Weather for 2026

I asked Grok about the weather, and here is the answer:

"Overview of Weather Expectations for North America in 2026Predicting weather for an entire year like 2026 across a vast continent like North America involves blending seasonal climate outlooks (from sources like NOAA's Climate Prediction Center) with longer-term trends influenced by climate change. Exact daily or monthly forecasts aren't possible this far out, but probabilistic patterns emerge from models considering factors like a likely weak La Niña (71% chance in late 2025, dropping to 54% into early 2026), which often brings cooler, wetter winters to the northern U.S. and Canada while warming the south. Overall, 2026 is expected to be warmer than historical averages continent-wide due to ongoing climate change, with more frequent extremes like heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts. Summers could see 27–50 days above 90°F (32°C) in parts of the U.S. by mid-century under current trends, amplified in 2026.I'll break this down by season, focusing on the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, with key regional variations. These draw from NOAA outlooks, IPCC assessments, and expert analyses.Winter (December 2025–February 2026, extending into early 2026)A weak La Niña is the dominant driver, favoring a split pattern: cooler and snowier in the north, drier and warmer in the south. This could mean more Arctic outbreaks but shorter cold snaps overall compared to pre-1980s La Niñas, as climate change raises baseline temperatures.Region

Temperature Outlook

Precipitation/Snow Outlook

Key Risks

Northern U.S. & Canada (e.g., Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Great Lakes)

Below- to near-average; cooler pockets in the West early on

Wetter than average; above-average snow in Rockies and Northern New England (promising for skiing)

Increased blizzard risk; early snowmelt by March due to warming trends

Central U.S. (Plains, Midwest)

Neutral (equal chances); variable cold shots

Equal chances; potential for wetter north-central areas

Drought persistence in some spots, transitioning to neutral by spring

Southern U.S. & Mexico (Southwest, Southeast, Gulf Coast)

Above-average; warmer flips in East by March

Drier than average; below-average snow in Southwest

Heightened wildfire risk from dry conditions; rapid hurricane intensification possible (more intense rainfall from storms)

Northeast U.S. & Eastern Canada

Near- to above-average in East; cooler north

Wetter in Northeast; variable snow (less consistent early season)

Flooding from heavy snow/rain; early end to ski season in lower elevations

Spring (March–May 2026)Transition from La Niña influences, with equal chances for temperatures and precipitation in many areas due to lower forecast skill. Climate trends suggest earlier snowmelt (already down since 1967) and more intense storms.Northern/Central North America: Milder with above-normal temperatures tilting in; increased flood risk from melting snow.

Southern Regions: Hotter and drier, exacerbating droughts in the Southwest and Mexico.

Extremes: More heavy rain events leading to floods; tornado activity in the Plains could be elevated.

Summer (June–August 2026)Warmer and more humid overall, with uneven precipitation. Climate change projections indicate intensified heat waves and uneven rain distribution—wetter north, drier south—building on 2023's record heat.Region

Temperature Outlook

Precipitation Outlook

Key Risks

Northern U.S. & Canada

Above-average; more winter/spring rain carries over

Wetter than average (more storms)

Heat-related health risks; vector-borne diseases like Lyme spreading northward

Southwest U.S. & Northern Mexico

Much warmer; prolonged heat waves

Drier; drought intensification

Wildfires, water shortages; crop yield drops (e.g., >10% in some counties)

Southeast U.S. & Southern Mexico

Hot and humid; record highs possible

Variable; heavy downpours amid dry spells

Hurricane season peaks with stronger storms (higher rainfall, surges); coastal flooding

Fall (September–November 2026)Shifting toward neutral ENSO, but with lingering warmth. Expect contrasts: cooler West early, then broader warming.Pacific Northwest & Rockies: Cooler start, transitioning variable.

East & South: Warmer, with potential for active hurricane season into October.

Extremes: Increased typhoon/monsoon threats in Mexico; early frosts less likely due to warming.

Broader Climate Change Influences in 2026Human-induced warming (already +1.1°C globally since pre-industrial times) will overlay these patterns, making extremes more likely:Heat Waves & Droughts: More intense in the Southwest and Plains; northern snow cover down ~10% since 2000.

Heavy Precipitation & Floods: Wetter winters/north, but flash floods from intense storms; sea levels rising ~3–4 mm/year threaten coasts.

Storms: Hurricanes/tornadoes intensify (e.g., 10–20% more rain per event); wildfires up due to drier fuels.

Ecosystem & Societal Impacts: Food production strained (e.g., potato yields in Midwest); health risks from heat/disease; $1 trillion in U.S. coastal property at flood risk by century's end.

These outlooks update monthly—check NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for refinements. Reducing emissions could limit warming to <2°C, curbing the worst extremes."

The Irony of How Some People Like Extreme Weather and Others May Complain About It

It's funny, how some people love extremes with the weather -- and other people, like things milder.

When it's super hot, some may complain about it being too hot; and they may also be the same individuals, who complain when it's super cold. (That's human nature, in a nutshell.)

Are you someone, who really finds 90 degree weather, to be exciting; not only because of the Summery things that you can do, but, also, because you like to see the temperature thermometer to show that it is gauging a higher, and higher temperature? Do you recall doing that, as a kid too?

How about the extreme Winter weather? Do you find extreme snow storms, to be fun? (Only, if you get to call into work, or stay home from school, because of a snow day; true?)

Currently, myself, I prefer a Spring day. Blue skies and in the 70's.

How about yourself?

May We Be Appreciative of Weather Persons and Weather Prediction Technology

It's one thing, for meteorologists to be able to predict a weekly weather forecast. However -- How is it possible, to predict extended monthly forecasts or yearly weather forecasts?

I noticed, the weather app on my phone offers the extended monthly forecast. That's pretty impressive. To have the kind of foresight by technology, is quite remarkable.

Granted, who has ever heard of a weatherperson being off, weather-prediction-wise? It happens; but still, is it not so very remarkable, the how they still manage to be pretty on target, when it comes to making weather predictions (of course, with the help of technology and not necessary a crystal ball)?

What would we do, without the go-to-weatherperson and the remarkable technology, that allows weather prediction and on-the-spot weather views to be?